One Cup to rule them all: World Cup Cinderellas, favorites and predictions

If the NCAA Tournament took steroids and decided to conquer the world, it would look like the World Cup. Then play it once only 4 years. Could you imagine Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and Michigan State going for the tourney title only once every 4 years? That's the best way I can explain it to American sports fans. Lots of big time countries will lose to less talented squads who play with a lot of hustle and heart. Yet the same super star nations end up in the semi finals (final four) every tournament. So if a team like Mexico, the US, England or France bows out early don't think of it as much how they screwed up but how these other nations rose to the occasion. Also, please feel free to bandwagon onto whatever Nation makes a surprise run. It's totally acceptable.

As for my overall preview, one things really sticks out to me.


Location, location location.

Host nations do really well in the Cup. While I personally expect South Africa to make some magic, I consider every African team a host nation and for them to do well because I feel they will be playing with the pride of the entire continent on their shoulder. More importantly European countries play poorly off their continent. It's a fact in my mind. Only two countries have ever won the Cup off their home continent: Brazil and Argentina. My picks reflect this. As much as I enjoy watching England and Spain play I foresee them heading home disappointed.

If the boot fits: Cinderellas in the crowd. These are teams that I feel have the chance to win it all if they catch a break or two. It is my hope that the USA can make a run, but I will use my space to feature other teams.


Ivory Coast: This is the most talented African nation in my mind. They have talented, experienced players all over the field. But they have maybe the most influential player in the Cup: Didier Drogba. Love him or hate him (I double hate him) he is a forward that always finds a way to score. He has carried Chelsea to huge success, and he can do it in South Africa as well. He broke his arm preparing for the Cup which leaves the question: Is the arm going to be the excuse for a bad World Cup, or the inspiration for a spectacular one?





The Netherlands: Consider them those old Roy Williams Kansas teams. All the talent, none of the big victories. The Dutch terrorize Europe during the regular season, but never seem to put it together for the big tournaments. Well, it only takes one tournament to change that perception. They have a top 3 offense and a good enough defense. If they can get their heads straight they could send some big countries home.

The Favorites:


Brazil: Brazil is looking to win its 6th World Cup on its 5th continent. What?? That's the kind of pedigree the Brazilians come from. Lots of people love their home country first, but Brazil is their second team. They have flash and style, but they have focused on defense recently. To the point where they left former world player of the year Ronaldihno at home. (despite the Nike commercial!) Fortunately, they have another former world player of the year in Kaka, and he will be their main creative force. If the defense can hold up and the forwards get some confidence it will be hard to stop the World Domination of Brazil.

Argentina: They boast the current world player of the year in Lionel Messi. How much can one player influence a team? Well, when he can literally dribble around the entire midfield, defense and goalie to score he is a rather important player. Not to say he is alone, there are many talented, experienced player around him. The question is whether their insane manager Maradona can not screw it up. As weird and temperamental as he is, I think he can hold it together for the big one.

Spain: They put on a show winning the European Championship in 2008. Much of that team is in tact for South Africa and they are ready for a World Championship. They have fierce forwards and brilliant midfielders and a top 5 keeper. Their downfall? They have played a ton of games. While those extra games from '08 may not matter now, all the games their talented players participate in the Champions League may take their toll. Also, Spain used to be known as the team that couldn't win the big one. Can they win the big one twice in a row?

And now for my doomed picks:
A1: Mexico
A2: South Africa
B1: Argentina
B2: Nigeria
C1: England
C2: USA
D1: Ghana
D2: Germany
E1: Netherlands
E2: Cameroon
F1: Italy
F2: Paraguay
G1: Brazil
G2: Ivory Coast
H1: Spain
H2: Chile

Quarterfinals
Nigeria V England
Netherlands V Brazil
Argentina V USA
Cameroon V Spain

Semi Finals
England V Brazil
Argentina V Cameroon

Finals
Argentina V Brazil

Champions: Argentina

Obviously I am very hopeful for the African continent. Think of North America, Asia and Africa as the mid-majors where a Final Four is like a championship. I also would like to see a non-European team not named Brazil win. As much as I would like Africa to do it, I see too much talent for Argentina. I see a classic final that is decided by a questionable call just so those two nations can hate each other more.

Enjoy The Cup!!!

One Nation: My USA World Cup Preview

No sporting event means more to the American sports landscape than the World Cup. That is not an exaggeration: for better or worse it's the truth. True, more Americans will talk about the Super Bowl or will fill out NCAA brackets or stop what they're doing to watch Albert Pujols than talk about soccer. But when it comes down to it, nothing compares to the effect the US Men's result in the World Cup has on the state of soccer in our nation. Lose and people think "wasn't that cute....Americans trying to play with the big boys." But defeat some of the big boys....and US Soccer gets some serious credibility in the eyes of a skeptic nation.

No pressure.

Actually that's more true than you would imagine. The expectations of the US team rides on the coat tails of their performance in the last World Cup. In 2002 the national team shocked the nation by making the quarterfinals. Expectations were high for 2006, some were predicting the semifinals. Well, we scored 2 goals and got knocked out early. This gives our team a "nothing left to lose" attitude. An attitude that fits Americans well. Here is a look at some key players you should know.

Consistent Stars: Great players who just seem to have the knack to rise to the occasion.
Tim Howard: He is an elite keeper, one of the top 5. He played over 40 games in England last year and he is sharp both in form and in decisions. He can clear out corners, get down for low shots and keep our back line organized. You don't have to worry about the keeper making a dumb decision with Howard in the goal. And that's saying a lot.





Landon Donovan: The all-time leading scorer for the US has moved from being a forward or attacking mid to play right wing. At first I was concerned about moving a playmaker to the wing, but Landon has proved my worries unnecessary. He is explosive in space, he makes great runs off the ball and has great touch. He knows how to weave in and out of the defense and that allows him to find his way into the action, often to create a chance on goal. Once a liability, he is clearly a strength now.


Clint Dempsey: His story is similar to Donovan's. A great striker and goal scorer, he now plays wing for the US. And like Donovan, that position suites him well. What he lacks in pace he makes up for in determination. He is always in the right place, always fighting for the ball. He knows when to use a flashy move and when to just muscle it through. And he always ends up in the action. The difference is Dempsey is more likely to get in a fight than Donovan. Not a bad thing mind you.

Need to perform to their abilities: Good players who have something to prove.

Jozy Altidore: He's been great for the national team over the last couple years, but he only played in about half his games this past season, and he didn't exactly perform well. Will we see the Jozy of last summer or last winter? As our most seasoned forward that is an important question for the team.

Michael Bradley: Honestly Bradley has played really consistently for the US. But even the slightest gaff and he could cost the US a game. He is our strongest defender in the midfield and often kick starts the offense. He connects the back to the front, we need him to be on his game.

Oguchu Onyewu: Gooch busted his knee last October and has shown a lot of heart getting to the World Cup at all. But he is still needed in the back. No offense to Clarence Goodson, but Onyewu (when healthy) is a rock on the back line. Can his knee hold up? Will there be rust? The answers will determine if Tim Howard makes comfortable saves or "hold your breath" saves.

Rise above it: Can these players make a difference?

Jose Torres: To be honest, I didn't know who this guy was before World Cup qualifying. I was surprised he made the team. But after the Turkey game I have really high hopes for him. He doesn't mind doing the dirty work in the midfield: Defending deep, bailing out the defense. This allows the rest of the midfield to focus on their offense a little more which greatly enhances our ball movement. I don't know how much he will play, but a good tournament from Torres could do wonders for the US.

Findley/Gomez/Buddle: Three forwards with little National team experience. Crazy? Crazy like a fox. These three are all playing great right now. They are literally too inexperienced to feel the pressure. All they know is the ball goes in the net. If any combination of these three can score 2 - 4 goals, the US is in great shape.

Success? After the poor performance in '06, the measure of success is hard to gauge. Think of the World Cup as the NCAA tournament, good teams lose and lesser teams make a run. Picking the World Cup is the same. For me, my expectation is for the US to get out of Group C and make the knock out round. I would call the tournament a definitive success. Make the Semifinals and the world will notice.

Win it all? Running around naked would be acceptable. I don't think it will happen, but that's why you play the games.

What are you on?

Today Floyd Landis came out and admitted he used performance enhancing drugs in his cycling career, including when he won the Tour De France in 2006. He has also implicated many other cyclists to using PED's, including Lance Armstrong.

Two things. First, when Jose Canseco wrote his book Juiced we all thought he was after attention. Turns out he was right, and in fact one of the most creditable sources on steroids in baseball. So Landis's claims deserve to be investigated. He certainly has the level of detail that makes you wonder if in fact Armstrong has been deceiving us. In the past several years when the public receives this level of detail, the information is more often than not true.

However, if it comes down to who to believe, I tend to believe Armstrong. He has been tested more than any athlete. He has never tested positive. He has always denied usage. Oh yeah, he survived death by beating cancer. Who would torment their body after getting a second chance?

Most of all, it reminded me of this Nike commercial. One of the best.

Finish the Job - 2010 Baseball Preview

Cardinals Preview:

I feel the motto for the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals will be a phrase we were uttering at the end of the 2009 season, "Just finish the job!" I fully expect the Cardinals to have a rip roaring time beating up on the NL Central this season. The only thing that can stop us is what hurt us down the stretch last year: finishing the game. How fragile is our bullpen? Will Franklin be able to hold it together through October? Will McClellan or Motte be able to pick up the slack if Franklin sucks. Shoot, will our current bullpen find its legs and hold on to the leads we have in general? My feeling is that we will trade for some bullpen help. It is easy to get a mid-level closer/set up man at the trade deadline for only a prospect or two. Think Pirates/Nationals.

Also, last summer I applauded the Derosa trade. Now that we crashed out of the playoffs, Derosa is in San Fransisco and Chris Perez is Cleveland's closer that deal doesn't look so hot. Honestly, if Derosa doesn't get hurt in his third at-bat he might be twice as productive and I wouldn't feel so bad seeing Perez in the box score for the Indians.

I am completely looking forward to the first 7 innings of every ball game. Our lineup puts on a clinic - literally. Schumaker, Ryan, Pujols, Holliday, Molina and even Rasmus all work the count and have great at-bats. This will not only wear down pitchers, but it will give each batter a good look at the oppositions pitch selection. By the 4th inning we will see some rallies game in and out. Our starting rotation looks awesome, even if Garcia doesn't work out. Carpenter and Wainwright are a treat to watch. Good season to look forward to.

Season Predictions:
Just for fun, here are my season predictions. I should point out I first made some really boring/obvious picks and actually changed two of them because you never know what's going to happen each season.

AL: New York, Chicago, Los Angeles Angels, Boston
NL: Atlanta, St. Louis, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia

World Series: St. Louis over New York Yankees

First, if I'm going to pick the Cards to make the playoffs, you bet I'm going to pick them to go all the way. That's just how it goes.

I looked hard at the NL East and AL Central. I went with Atlanta because I feel their rotation is built for the regular season. They have 4 quality starters and a unproven Japanese import. Their lineup looks solid and their bullpen is anchored by Billy Wagner. The Phillies have Halladay but some inconsistency after that. And can anyone honestly trust Brad Lidge anymore? I go Atlanta.

It was really a toss up between Chicago and Minnesota. The White Sox have a better rotation, the Twins have a great looking lineup. In the end I went with pitching and variety with the White Sox. (That AL Central is hard to pick, I get it wrong every year).

One last prediction: Pujols will make me say "You can't just go out and do that!" at least 10 more times this season. For example: (Pujols hits homerun in first at bat) "You can't just hit a home run to start the season! Who does that!" (Pujols goes 4 for 5 with 2 homeruns) "You can't win and MVP and then go 4/5 right out of the gates! It's just obsurd!" Get the idea?

NCAA: Change you can scratch your head about.

The NCAA is starting down a path that I feel could be a very bad precedent for College athletics. Let's review the NCAA post season practices for my two favorite college sports: Football and Men's Basketball.

The BCS: NCAA Football currently uses the BCS to determine the 2 teams that can play in the National Championship game. To be one of the two teams you pretty much a) Have to be from one of the BCS Conferences and b) Have to be a "football powerhouse" to get the votes to get that high in the rankings. It is a flawed system that most coaches and media feels needs to change. Yet, the experts say that this will NOT happen.

NCAA Tournament: I consider this the crown jewel in college athletics where every single teams has a shot at winning the tournament and National Championship. Although it is usually won by a "BCS" Conference, the possibility for smaller conference teams (Memphis) exists. However, the idea that the tournament should expand to 96 teams is gaining momentum. I am against this because I think you should earn your way into the tournament and it's ok for good-not-great teams to be left out. From what I can tell all the media and most of the coaches feel this way too. Yet, the experts say that this expansion WILL happen.

Even though it is March, STOP THE MADNESS! Why would you take something that is not broken and fix it yet leave the broken system in place?

There's an answer. The same answer for almost every bizarre decision in life. Say it with me:

Money.

The BCS makes too much money to change, and the NCAA Tournament can make more money by changing their system to a 96 team field. This sickens me, and I feel it will set a terrible precedent for college athletics.

Why do college fans enjoy the college game more than the professional game? My answer has always been the integrity of the competition. The players are not professional athletes. Yes they receive scholarships and easier course loads, but in the end it makes their life comfortable, not luxurious. They still only have at most 4 years to live out their dreams on the playing surface or there will be no tomorrow. I love the NFL, but I dislike the NBA. Why? Because I feel the entire NBA comes down to only a couple players on every team. College basketball relies on the whole team, and that's what I love.

If the NCAA continues to make decisions based on money, not the product on the field they will start to lose fans. I can't tell you how or why, I just know it will happen. The NFL is possible the top league in the world because they emphasize protecting the product on the field. MLB started gaining respect again when they focused on eliminating steroids to help their integrity on the field.

If the NCAA keeps making decisions based on money, I just have a gut feeling they will lose the passion of the fans. Something nobody; fans, players, or coaches, wants. So please, stop the madness. Think of your fans and athletes, not your pocketbooks.

Super Bowl Ads and other thoughts

Aint Nobody Better.

The Super Bowl is a special time for me. With an advertising background and a love of football I literally watch the entire game start to finish. Add on a great half-time show and thank God for DVR or I would never get to pee. So here are my thoughts on the ads, entertainment and the game.

The Ads:
First off, they were disappointing to me. I felt that most ads had a good idea that never got developed. Take the Griswold's checking into a hotel for Home Away. I would totally watch a whole movie of that, but the ad just didn't pack enough punch. Even the Clydesdale commercial was completely predictable. In the end my taste in ads vastly differed from what I consider the official rankings from USA Today. I thoughts Denny's did a great job promoting their free give-away. Who knew chickens screamed like girls? My favorite Doritos ad was the one where the boy tells his mom's date "Don't touch my mom, and don't touch my Doritos." That one made me laugh. Otherwise, two ads really left an impression.



The Simpsons and Coca-Cola:
The Simpsons have been around 20 years and in my opinion represent Americana. They tackle all issues, they guest star sooooo many of the best pop figures of the last 20 years. I view them as a classic that has still got it going on. Which is why pairing them with Coke was genious, as they both have the same selling points. "Remember how we were awesome 20 years ago? Still Awesome!" Plus....Burns losing his money and the town not appreciating his collection was just funny. I think in time we will see the beauty of this ad.



Flo TV Ad:
I think this ad aired during half-time so it didn't "count" in the standings, but I loved it. This ad took the biggest TV moments of the last oh 50 years and put them into one ad to the tune of "My Generation" by The Who. I can't begin to describe how genius this is. But I will try. First, props for using The Who when they were playing half-time. Second, what better way to drive home the idea of a hand held TV then to remind people of the "Where were you when" moments of the last 2-3 generations??? Think about it. I mean, this was a history lesson in 1 minute!! It even carried all the way to the present with the Haiti earthquake. Total brilliance, and again the more we see this ad the more we will appreciate it.

The Winner: Snickers Tackles Betty White
I must say, I was surprised that a) Anheuser-Busch lost for the second straight year and b) this is what beat it. I know that seeing Betty White getting slammed was funny, but really that was it. I mean of course seeing old people getting tackled is funny! I guess I felt that ad was too easy of a joke. Maybe that's the beauty of it.

The Who at Halftime:
Ever since Justin killed Janet's career the halftime show has been aging artists who the networks need not worry about doing anything naughty. And while it's fun to sing along to great hits, some of these artists just don't pack the punch they used too. (cough Rolling Stones cough)

Not The Who. They brought it. Roger has his voice, Peter has his windmill. I was really entertained. I was more impressed by how loud the fans were singing along. I had never heard that before and it really added to the performance. Add on that amazing stage and it was definitely the best performance since U2 in '02 and in my opinion a top 5 halftime show up there with Michael Jackson and the Mo-Town tribute.

Special points for almost every song promoting the CSI series which just so happens to air on CBS. Clever.

The Game:
I loved this game. I picked the Saints and was rooting hard for them. I truly felt it was a perfect game up until the Manning interception. Sure there were some drops and a stopped 4th down, but honesly those plays happen. I really felt both teams went and executed their game plans and in the end the Saints made two big plays with the Pick-6 and the onside kick. Those plays literally made up for the difference on the score board.

I think Manning played great. Turns out the Saints defense is really good. Manning made a ton of top notch throws just to put points on the board. He had to be perfect, and most of his completions were perfect. Give credit to the Saint Defense who just made one big play at the right time. I think Drew Brees kept his head and made so many smart decisions. He made safe throws and let his receivers get the yards. That's great football.

How to build a franchise:
I think the St. Louis Rams can learn a lot about how to build a a championship team. Both the Colts and Saints built themselves in impressive manners and here is how I view them.

Indianapolis Colts "The Model" That roster is littered with players who have never played for another team other than the Colts. That means that the Colts have made a killing on great drafts after great drafts. It helps that they drafted future hall-of-famer Peyton Manning early in this development, but still they make the most of what they have in house year after year. This takes some time to build, but once you do you become the winning-est team of the decade. This is what every franchise tries to do.

New Orleans Saints "The Best of what's around" The Saints went out and signed great free agents at key positions and built around them in the draft. This is probably where the Rams are headed since we have drafted so poorly in recent years. I actually think the answer will be in between for the Rams. Find your "franchise" players in the draft and fill in need with quality free agents. At least we have two models to learn from.

The Future:
The Saints have a ton of free agents, and Super Bowl players tend to get money thrown at them. The good news for the Saints is they won, and other quality players will want to get in on this action while the Saints still have a core of great players.

The Colts have a different problem. Losing the Super Bowl hurts. A Lot. Like try forever. Who is the last team to lose a Super Bowl and return? (Answer: The Giants took 7 years to return, the Patriots took 5 and the Steelers took 10. The Bills....lets not talk about the Bills.) Even past Super Bowl winners have troubles recovering from a loss (New England and St. Louis). So keep your chin up, Indianapolis. Keep Peyton Manning protected in the pocket and I think you will be fine. I think he is durable enough that they won't suffer the same fate as the Patriots and Rams.

Finally, I believe I predicted 7 of the 10 Super Bowl winners last decade (before the game, not the season. I didn't get any of those). That's not a bad stat! I missed The Giants/Patriots, the Seahawks/Steelers and of course the Rams/Patriots.

YouTube artist: Pomplamoose

One day when I pulled up YouTube I saw a suggested video by an artist named Pomplamoose. On this particular day that was enough for me to be interested and check it out. I mean, with a name like that you'd have to be good, right? Totally right. The lady (Nataly) has a relaxed, clear voice. (She also plays bass) All the other instruments (and a few vocals) are recorded by Jack, the gentleman in the video. In fact, they call these videosongs. What that means is that everything you see is what you hear. (No overdubbing) Each instrument or harmony is included in the video at some point, so you get the full picture of what it took to record this song. And given the massive creativity and energy they brought to this song I'm very glad they did. I hope you enjoy it.